Euro 2024: Second round ones

Slovenia - Serbia 1-1

Denmark - England 1-1

Spain - Italy 1-0

Second round of games is a weird one, a last chance for teams that have lost the first round while not particularly important for teams that have won. Of course, everyone still wants to win, but it matters differently, and it shows. It becomes a lot more about the result than about the football, and this shows in the quality of games and in the decreasing number of goals scored.

My predictions are also all over the place, as I'm mostly basing them on the first round performances, which apparently is a bad idea. No two games alike and all that. 

For instance, Serbia made a pretty good game against England and were rather unlucky to lose. So I really thought Solvenia's luck will stop here. But it wasn't luck, apparently, but rather they were good enough to match Denmark. And they were certainly better than Serbia on the day, dominating play throughout the game and really really unlucky to be pulled level with virtually the last shot of the game. This is probably where their lack of experience shows, they should've worked a tiny bit harder for that all important second goal cushion.

Key moment of Karničnik's goal

Regardless, that first goal was a thing of beauty. Not as spectacular as some of the long range individual efforts that seem to be the trademark of this tournament, but a brilliant, brilliant individual achievement, and proof of a very smart footballer. Just watch Karničnik's movement: recover the ball at right back by his own box, a 50 years sprint, a brilliant pass for the left winger, and incredible intuition to move to the far post and find the space to slot it in. Serbian defense completely stunned, their midfield non-existent.

And then they score from a scuffle with the very last corner. Completely undeserved point for the Serbs, who are gonna go finish the group last anyway. Tough gig for Slovenia now though, who have England in the last game and need to get something out of it. Hard, but not impossible. It will be a question of game management rather than skill.

My prediction is both games will end in draws, but Denmark might push for a 2-2 draw, which would see them finish second if England - Slovenia finishes 1-1. This would very likely leave Slovenia out with three points, as it will probably be a case of 4 points to qualify from 3rd. Which is a shame, they did very well. Maybe they can beat England?

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Speaking of, England is a far cry from the team who played the final three years ago. It's certainly not the quality of the players, I feel this is a team that's mentally weak. Overpaid, uninterested footballers looking forward to going back to their 6-figure/week wages at their clubs. Or unable to play as a team. Or something. Squeezed past Serbia, went one up against Denmark, but once they were equalized I didn't see much effort or interest to go on and win the game. This allowed Denmak to grow into it and have a few opportunities to even grab a win. Which would have felt deserved.

How can Bellingham go from such a beautiful, poetic football in the game against Serbia to being basically non-existent against Denmark? But for Harry Kane's poacher instincts, England qualification might be in danger now. It still is, in theory, but them losing to Slovenia while Denmark beats Serbia requires a bit of suspension of belief.

Quick mention for Hjulmand whose excellent shot made the score 1-1. Another beautiful long range effort, and I wonder what it is about the German pitches that make these goals more viable. If I remember correctly, long range goals were a staple of the 2006 World Cup too.

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Spain - Italy felt like the most unpredictable game so far, and I'm surprised by how one-sided it was. Are Spain really this good? It doesn't feel like it when looking at the lineup, but they did give two very convincing performances so far. Even so, Italy showed why they brought catenaccio into the world, and it took an own goal for Spain to have anything to show for their efforts.

It does look like Italy will beat Croatia, though don't expect a good game. Spain - Albania might actually be a good, open one, with both teams to score and Spain to win a good shout. Which means Spain and Italy will go through, in this order, which is fine, because Italians don't mind the hard way.

I still think both teams are in contention for the trophy, let's see how the draw shapes up.